The Port Puts a Number on the Loss
The Port of San Francisco's flood study covers 7.5 miles of shoreline, from Aquatic Park to Heron's Head Park. Without new defences, the Port expects $23 billion in damages over the next century. KQED reported that figure on 11 August 2026.
The Recommended Plan, released in August 2026, prices the answer at $17.8 billion in 2026 dollars.
The Plan Is a Proposal Until Congress Acts
The federal government may pay up to 65 percent of construction cost. Congress has not authorised the project. The final feasibility report is the last technical step before the Chief of Engineers signs it and Congress takes it up.
The design sits at a 20 percent level. The Army Corps requires designs covering at least 35 percent of the plan before it asks Congress for funding.
Four Items the Plan Leaves Open
Section 2.6 lists them. Detailed designs for the flood defences. Designs for waterfront streets, open spaces and infrastructure. The timing and sequencing of construction. The funding plan.
The boundaries move as well. The plan states that it will refine subreach boundaries in later phases.
The Standard Changes by Reach
The Embarcadero defends against 3.5 feet of sea level rise. South Beach and Mission Bay defend against 1.5 feet. Islais Creek and Bayview defend against 1.5 feet.
A later tier takes the defences to 3.5 to 7 feet. The Monitoring and Adaptation Plan decides when that work starts, on hydrologic and meteorologic indicators.
Where the First Works Land
The Early Resilience Actions name the area around Rincon Park and portions of the Mission Creek, Mission Bay and Islais Creek shorelines. The plan's phasing figure places first actions at about 2030 and beyond.
One stretch has a street boundary. The South Beach portion runs along the Embarcadero between Harrison and Townsend streets. The plan raises the Ferry Building and the historic bulkhead buildings by 7 feet.
What an Owner Carries Into the Valuation
Three unknowns sit inside the asset. When the defence reaches the frontage. Who pays the local share. How construction affects the loading door and coach access.
Ask the Port for the subreach assignment in writing, and ask again as boundaries are refined. Ask for the elevation standard on the frontage in feet. Ask where the property sits against the South Beach extent. Ask for the Monitoring and Adaptation Plan triggers in writing. Ask for the relocation and easement exposure. Ask how design work is funded before any appropriation.
Six questions produce six answers a sponsor can carry into a valuation file. A lender that reads the defence as certain has priced a proposal as an asset.
The Engineering Works, and the Schedule Moves
Mark Lubell, a professor of environmental science and policy at UC Davis, told KQED the plan is technically feasible and that the time, money and effort involved are very large. He also said delay raises the price.
An owner holds a building, a location and a defence that waits on federal decisions. Put the six answers next to the capital reserve and the roof schedule.