The thesis
The Lincoln delivers 48 for-sale condominiums to Coconut Grove in the third quarter of 2028. Prices start at $1.5 million and 19 contracts were signed before excavation. No fetched source carries a nightly rental programme. The building adds households to the village and adds no lodging supply, and the eight hotels inside a kilometre of the site stand to gain the visiting demand those households create.
Eight stories on half an acre
Lore Development Group and Element Development broke ground in June 2026 on a 20,970 square foot parcel. The building carries eight stories and 48 residences. The construction address is 3151 SW 27th Avenue and the post-completion address is 2650 Lincoln Avenue. Homes run from one bedroom to four bedrooms plus a den. Paredes Architects designed the building, Design Philosophy handled the interiors and Winmar Construction holds the general contract.
Nineteen contracts at a $1.5 million floor
Florida YIMBY reported 19 of 48 residences presold when construction began. Commercial Observer reconfirmed the 40 percent figure in September 2026. At the $1.5 million floor those 19 contracts carry $28.5 million, and all 48 carry $72 million. The record publishes no rental programme that would convert any of the 48 into lodging supply.
The eight hotels inside a kilometre
Straight-line distances from the site point at 25.73293, -80.23710 put eight hotels inside a thousand metres. Courtyard Miami Coconut Grove sits at 196 m and Residence Inn Miami Coconut Grove at 253 m. The Ritz-Carlton Coconut Grove sits at 315 m and Mayfair House Hotel & Garden at 616 m. The Mutiny Hotel sits at 693 m, Hotel Arya at 726 m, Mr. C Miami at 806 m and Commodore Inn the Grove at 998 m. The figures come from OpenStreetMap coordinates and a haversine calculation, and they measure the straight line.
Where the demand comes from
A household that pays $1.5 million for a home in the Grove hosts its guests inside the same village. Family visits, a wedding at the Barnacle and a renovation that empties a floor for a season each need a bed sold by the night. The nearest bed sits 196 metres from the door.
Those visits arrive with the first handovers. Nineteen contracts before excavation measure the depth of local ownership demand, and they date the arrival of households from the first quarter of 2029. The 29 unsold residences are the second number to watch, because a slower sellout returns the sponsor's marketing spend to hotel ballrooms for broker events, open houses and buyer dinners.
The thirty month loan and the March 2029 maturity
SME Capital lent $58 million over a 30 month term in September 2026, with two six month extension options. Berkadia arranged the loan, with Scott Wadler, Bobby Dockerty, Mitch Sinberg, Matt Robbins and Brad Williamson on the file. A 30 month term from September 2026 matures in March 2029. The Q3 2028 target lands 24 months into the term and leaves six months of base term after the first handover. A slip past March 2029 turns an extension into a cost.
Four projects hand over first
OPUS Coconut Grove completes in 2027 at 0.1 miles and Four Seasons Private Residences completes in mid 2028 at 0.3 miles. Arbor opened in March 2026 at 0.4 miles and Roble One completes in late 2026 at 0.9 miles. The Lincoln arrives after all four. The 40 percent presale figure is the sponsor's answer to that sequencing.
The gap in the record
Every source fetched for this piece carries no rental programme, no leasing restriction and no operator agreement for The Lincoln. A rental channel could still arrive before handover, and one announcement would reset this read. Until then the 48 homes enter the Grove as residences.
Where the evidence lands
A supply reading needs a rental channel, and the record carries none. The evidence points to 48 owner-occupied homes 196 metres from the closest hotel, with a demand pool built from the people those owners host. Three items reset the read: a published rental programme before mid 2027, the 29 remaining contracts, and any change to the eight story scope.